Social Resilience and Vulnerability: a Novel Methodology for Identifying Bifurcation Points

O. MULSKA; T. VASYLTSIV; R. LUPAK; I. BARANYAK; O. LEVYTSKA; I. PYKUS

doi:10.15407/scine21.04.003

Authors

O. MULSKA M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1666-3971
T. VASYLTSIV M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-6924
R. LUPAK Lviv University of Trade and Economics https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3101-7107
I. BARANYAK M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1467-0262
O. LEVYTSKA M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8174-9918
I. PYKUS M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1118-9856

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15407/scine21.04.003

Keywords:

resilience, territory, vulnerability, Ukraine, shocks, war, social domain, thresholds, bifurcation, vector

Abstract

Introduction. The persistence of systemic destabilizing forces in socio-economic development has complicated the implementation of policy mechanisms aimed at strengthening territorial social resilience.
Problem Statement. In contemporary contexts, macroeconomic shocks have heightened social vulnerability. Enhancing social resilience is thus essential to improving quality of life, mitigating social inequality and tension, and increasing citizen satisfaction — constituting a vital mechanism for reducing the adverse effects of such shocks.
Purpose. This study is aimed to identify bifurcation points within the resilience — vulnerability continuum of social systems — specifically zones of vulnerability, safety margins, and resilience — under conditions of transformational change, using the Carpathian region as a case study.
Materials and Methods. Bifurcation points of territorial social resilience have been determined using a dynamic equilibrium framework. Threshold vectors have been derived based on normal, lognormal, and exponential distributions of primary data using the maximum–minimum approach.
Results. Thresholds for each indicator of all social resilience components have been identified in terms of marginal and optimal levels. The upper threshold for the employment rate of the population aged 15—70 has been found to be 69.0%, with a lower optimal threshold of 63.7%; in contrast, Ukraine’s employment rate in 2021 was 55.7%. Indicators of demographic security have shown critical trends: for example, in 2021, Lviv Oblast reported 170.1 children per 1,000 residents, which was 48.2 fewer than the lower optimal threshold.

Conclusions. The identified bifurcation points in territorial social resilience underscore the urgent need to establish a modern social development model grounded in digital transformation, equitable access to social services and benefits, robust social protection, and inclusive civic participation.

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