Ukraine’s Economy: Resilience Under War and Challenges for Post-War Recovery
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15407/scine20.05.016Keywords:
military-economic cycles, hybrid “peace – war” system, modern hybrid warfare, reconstructive recovery, international financial support.Abstract
Introduction. The war has an unprecedented negative effect on the Ukrainian economy and society, the socioeconomic consequences of which require a thorough assessment and scientific understanding.
Problem Statement. Strategic, programmatic and model developments regarding the post-war reconstructive recovery of Ukraine should take into account the main determinants of the national economy resilience and the challenges facing it in the global coordinates of the hybrid “peace—war” system.
Purpose. To identify the effect of military shocks in macroeconomic, macro-financial, and social aspects for the period of February 2022 — April 2024, as well as the main risks and challenges of the Ukraine’s post-war recovery.
Materials and Methods. Materials and statistical data of relevant domestic and international institutions have been used. The methods employed are as follows: dialectical and logical-historical, statistical, tabular-graphic, institutional methodology, cyclical and world-system analysis, macroeconomic aggregation, time series analysis.
Results. The effect of military shocks has caused significant damage to Ukraine, but overall, over the two years of war, the country has been demonstrating socio-economic resilience. However, there are serious challenges and risks for the resilience and economic recovery of the post-war Ukraine, the most important of which are the continuation of the war on Ukrainian territory, high level of corruption, dependence on external financing, and the growth of the demo-economic burden and poverty.
Conclusions. The full-scale war in Ukraine is a component of the global, very complex and long-term process of reformatting the world order and can be adequately assessed only in the context of the global hybrid “peace—war" system. In the present-day conditions of signifi cant global uncertainty, the contextual model of national development, which is based on the activation of Ukraine’s own resource potential, can ensure resilience of our country.
Downloads
References
How the Ukrainian Economy Remains Resilient. (2024, February 23). Geoeconomics Centre at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). Milan. URL: https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/come-resiste-leconomiaucraina-164725 (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Frank, A. G. (1981). Refl ections on the World Economic Crisis. New York: Monthly Review Press.
Braudel, F. (1995). A History of Civilizations. New York: Penguin Books.
Wallerstein, I. (2004). World-System Analysis: Introduction. Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv11smzx1
Bilorus, O. (2018). A Polit-Economic Forecast of the Global Co-Development in the 21st Century: Global Post-Capitalism or the World-System of Information-Network Globalism. Economic Theory, 1, 5—20. https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2018.01.005 [in Ukrainian].
Goldstein, J. S. (1988). Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Podliesna, V. (2024). The Actualization of Military-Economic Cycles in the Process of Societal Development. LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. London.
Peltier, H. (2023). We get what we pay for: the cycle of military spending, industry power, and economic dependence. Watson Institute for International and Public Aff airs at Brown University.
Grytsenko, A. (2023). Nationally Rooted Economic Development as a Local Response to the Global Geoeconomic Shifts. Economy of Ukraine, 4, 38—54. https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2023.04.003 [in Ukrainian].
Danylyshyn, B. M. (2023). Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability under the Martial Law. Sci. innov., 19(1), 3—19. https://doi.org/10.15407/scine19.01.003
Hallegatte, S. (2014, May). Economic Resilience: Defi nition and Measurement. Policy Research Working Paper, 6852. World Bank, Climate Change Group. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6852
Martin, R., Sunley, P. (2015). On the Notion of Regional Economic Resilience: Conceptualization and Explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 15(1), 1—42. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu015
Eisenberg, D. A., Linkov, I., Park, J., Bates, M. E., Fox-Lent, C., Seager, Th. P. (2014). Resilience Metrics: Lessons from Military Doctrines. Solutions, 5(5), 76—87.
Manca, A. R., Benczur, P., Gio vannini, E. (2017). Building a Scientifi c Narrative Towards a More Resilient EU Society. Part 1: a Conceptual Framework. Joint Research Centre, European Commission. https://doi.org/10.2760/635528.
Treshchenkov, E. (2019). Resilience in the Discourses of the European Union and International Organizations]. Bulletin of International Organizations, 14(1), 55—75. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2019-01-04 [in Russian].
Giovannini, E., Benczur, P., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Manca, A. (2020). Time for Transformative Resilience: the COVID-19 Emergency. Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
Cherevatskyi, D. (2023). Resilience of the Economy and Economics of Resilience. Economy of Industry, 1(101), 31—39. http://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2023.01.031 [in Ukrainian].
Korablin, S. (2022). Ukraine: The Financial Dimension of the War. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 7, 39—41 [in Ukrainian].
Krychevska, T. (2022). Global Stagfl ation Shocks and the Revision of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crises of the 1970s and 2020s. Economic Theory, 3, 57—88. https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2022.03.057 [in Ukrainian].
Kornivska, V. (2022). The Russian-Ukrainian War Crisis as Part of the Profound Global Transformation Process: The Financial Mechanisms for Stabilization and Recovery. The Problems of Economy, 2(52), 22—31. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2022-2-22-31 [in Ukrainian].
Heyets, V. M., Burlai, T. V., Blyzniuk, V. V. (2023). Social Resilience of the National Economy Through the Prism of the Experience of the European Union and Ukraine. Economic Theory, 3, 5—43. https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2023.03 [in Ukrainian].
Borodina, O., Yaroviy, V., Fraier, O. (2022). Agrifood of Ukraine Under the Wartime System Challenges and Risks. Publishing House “Baltij a Publishing”, 38—55. https://doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-26-275-3-3 [in Ukrainian].
Borzenko, O. O., Piliaiev, I. S, (2022). The Impact of Values on National Reconstruction: Is the Case of South Korea Appropriate for Ukraine? Bulletin of the Karaganda University. Economy series, 4(108), 26—33. https://doi.org/10.31489/2022ec4/26-33
Amosha, O. I., Amosha, O. O. (2023). Regarding the Formula of the Strategy of the Post-War Reconstruction of the Economy. Industrial Economics, 1(101), 69—78. http://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry.2023.01.069 [in Ukrainian].
Kindzerskyi, Yu. (2023). Industrial Pol icy for Economic Development: to the Problem of Its Justifi cation from the Standpoint of World Experience and in the Context of the Need for Use During the War Period and Post-War Recovery in Ukraine. Economic Analysis, 33(3), 110—129. https://doi.org/10.35774/econa2023.03.110 [in Ukrainian].
Bret, C. (2024, February). Two Years of War in Ukraine: What Impact on the EU Geopolitical Strategy? Policy Brief. Jacques Delors Institute. Paris.
Trebesch, Ch. (2024, February). Europe Has a Long Way to Go to Replace US Aid — Large Gap Between Commitments and Allocations. Ukraine Support Tracker — A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine. Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Cirella, G. T. (Ed). (2024, March). Handbook on Post-War Reconstruction and Development Economics of Ukraine: Catalyzing Progress. Springer Nature Switzerland, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48735-4
Heyets, V., Grytsenko, A. (2019). “Tertium Datur” by Grzegorz W. Kolodko. Acta Oeconomica, 69(1), 21—30. https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2019.69.s1.3
Ukraine: Protection of Civilians in Armed Confl ict. March 2024 Update. (2024, April 09). United Nations in Ukraine. URL: https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2024-04/Ukraine_protection_of_civilians_in_armed_conflict_March_ 2024_ENG.pdf (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Internally Displaced Persons. Analytics. (2024, May). Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine. URL: https://www.msp.gov. ua/timeline/?t=152&from=&till=&m=10#tagpanel (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Operational Data Portal: Ukraine Refugee Si tuation. (2024, April 19). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). URL: https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
People under temporary protection stable at 4.2 million. (2024, May 08). Eurostat. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240508-2 (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Ukraine — Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3): February 2022 — December 2023. (2024, February). World Bank. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099021324115085807/P1801741bea12c012189ca16d95d8c2556a (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
(2024). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Ukraine. (2024, March 21). International Monetary Fund. UR L: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/21/pr2496-ukraineimf-executive-board-completes-third-review-eff (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Seminozhenko, V. P. (2001). Globalization and strategy of humanitarian economy. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 4, 8—12 [in Ukrainian]
The Ministry of Finance Presents the Main Results and Achievements of 2023. (2024, January 22). Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. URL: https://mof.gov.ua/uk/news/minfi n_prezentuie_golovni_rezultati_ta_dosiagnennia_2023_roku-4399 (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Financing Sources of the General Fund of Ukraine’s State Budget in 2023. (2024, February 07). Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. URL: https://mof.gov.ua/storage/fi les/Carpates%20-%20Financing_ua_v29122023.pdf [in Ukrainian] (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Funding of the Ukraine’s State Budget of Since the Beginning of the Full-Scale War. (2024, April 25). Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. URL: https://mof.gov.ua/uk/news/ukraines_state_budget_fi nancing_since_the_beginning_of_ the_full-scale_war-3435 [in Ukrainian] (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
How to Rebuild Ukraine — Sociological Survey of Citizens and Business Representatives. (2023, June 14). Transparency International Ukraine. URL: https://ti-ukraine.org/en/research/how-to-rebuild-ukraine-sociological-survey-of-citizens-and-business-representatives/ (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Ukraine: Recovery and Growth Prospects. Consensus Forecast — April 2024. (2024, April 23). Ministry of Econo my of Ukraine. URL: https://www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&id=767c9944-87c0-4e5a-81ea-848bc0a7f470&tag= Konsensus-prognoz (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
France Will Insure Its Companies Interested in Rebuilding Ukraine Against War Risks. (2023, October 02). Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. URL: https://www.me.gov.ua/News/Detail?lang=en-GB&id=0a9ebbb0-cd7e-4a30-8f4c-4ca0d4dd 104c&title=FranceWillInsureItsCompaniesInterestedInRebuildingUkraineAgainstWarRisks (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
The Financial Stability Council Approved the Concept of Creating a War Risk Insurance System in Ukraine. (2024, February 12). National Bank of Ukraine. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/rada-z-fi nansovoyi-stabilnosti-pogodilakontseptsiyu-stvorennya-v-ukrayini-sistemi-strahuvannya-voyennih-rizikiv [in Ukrainian] (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Analysis of the Impact of Refugees from Ukraine on the Economy of Poland — March 2024. (2024, March). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in collaboration with Deloitte. URL: https://data.unhcr.org/ar/ documents/details/106993 (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Demographic development strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2040 (draft). (2024, March 28). Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine. URL: https://www.msp.gov.ua/projects/870/ (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Due to the armed attack, we lost 20 years and almost returned to the poverty level of 2001. (2023, November 06). Voice of Ukraine. URL: http://www.golos.com.ua/article/374797 [in Ukrainian] (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Statistical Data on the Activities of the Pension Fund of Ukraine in 2022. (2023, March). Pension Fund of Ukraine. URL: https://www.pfu.gov.ua/statystyka/infografi ka/2023-infografi ka/ (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Ukraine is One of the Most Corrupt Countries in Europe. The War with Russia Hasn’t Changed That. (2023, February 02). Firstpost. URL: https://www.fi rstpost.com/explainers/ukraine-one-of-the-most-corrupt-countries-in-europe-russia-warvolodymyr-zelenskyy-12091652.html (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Slovakia’s new Prime Minister calls Ukraine most corrupt country in the world (2023, October 27). European Pravda, Ukrainska Pravda. URL: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/27/7426071/ (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Artіomova, T. (2021). Conditions for Normal Reproduction of Middle Social Strata. Collection of materials of the International Symposium “Experience. Knowledge. Contemporary Challenges”. 8th Edition “Back to the Future. Social-econo mic Challenges and Perspectives” (27—28 May, 2021, Bucharest, Romania), 437—454 [in Russian].
European Pillar of Social Rights: The La Hulpe Declaration on the Future of Social Europe. (2024, April 15). Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU. URL: https://belgian-presidency.consilium.europa.eu/en/events/european-pillarof-social-rights-the-la-hulpe-declaration-on-the-future-of-social-europe/ (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2023 Article IV Consultation and the Second Review under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Ukraine. (2023, December 11). International Monetary Fund. URL: https://www.imf.org/ en/News/Articles/2023/12/11/pr23433-ukraine-2023-article-iv-consultation-and-the-second-review-under-the-eff - arrangement (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Released. (2024, February 15). Press Release, 2024/ Eca/063. World Bank. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/02/15/updated-ukraine-recoveryand-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released (Last accessed: 14.05.2024).
Ovadiya, M., Kryeziu, A., Masood, S., Zapatero, E. (2015). Social Protection in Fragile and Confl ict-Aff ected Countries: Trends and Challenges. World Bank Group.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Copyright Notice Authors published in the journal “Science and Innovation” agree to the following conditions: Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication. Authors may enter into separate, additional contractual agreements for non-exclusive distribution of the version of their work (article) published in the journal “Science and Innovation” (for example, place it in an institutional repository or publish in their book), while confirming its initial publication in the journal “Science and innovation.” Authors are allowed to place their work on the Internet (for example, in institutional repositories or on their website).
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
