Financial Forecast of Biofuel Production and Use in Ukraine During and After Military Actions

Abstract

Introduction. Ukraine has possessed substantial potential for cultivating biofuel crops and producing biofuels as
an innovative alternative to petroleum products. This potential has been facilitated by extensive land resources,
favorable climatic conditions, the presence of major transport corridors, and the availability of essential production factors.
Problem Statement. The financial forecasting of biofuel production and use in Ukraine during and after military operations has required further investigation, given the critical importance of energy security and postwar economic recovery.
Purpose. The objective of this study has been to assess, through financial forecasting, the prospects for the
production and use of biofuels derived from rapeseed oil during the period of military conflict and the subsequent
post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy.
Materials and Methods. The analysis has been conducted using diesel fuel blended with rapeseed oil and/or its derivatives as the principal case study. The study has applied methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and
deduction, classification, generalization, and graphical and tabular representation.
Results. The main advantages of rapeseed oil have included its renewability and environmental sustainability.
Agricultural producers have demonstrated strong interest in cultivating rapeseed due to the consistently high demand for its seeds and oil, as well as favorable market prices. With regard to environmental performance, it has been empirically established that smoke emissions from diesel exhaust gases with rapeseed oil admixtures have been lower than those from pure diesel fuel. Nevertheless, the environmental impact has not been completely eliminated, which remains a limitation of biofuel use. Another key advantage has been the contribution to national energy independence. However, the energy efficiency of rapeseed-based fuel has been shown to be lower than that of fossil fuels, which can be considered a drawback. In addition, the production cost of biofuels has exceeded that of conventional fossil fuels.
Conclusions. The assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of using diesel fuel blended with rapeseed oil has demonstrated a clear predominance of benefits over limitations. This outcome has provided grounds to recommend rapeseed-based biofuels as a viable alternative to fossil fuels in Ukraine’s energy system, both during ongoing military operations and throughout the
post-war recovery period.