POST-WAR ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF UKRAINE IN THE IMPERATIVES OF LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Introduction. Despite uncertain terms and conditions of the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine, the resource-intensiveness and complexity of this task, its successful realization will create unique opportunities for the implementation of essential institutional reforms and radical structural economic transformations. Priorities and effective implementation mechanisms of such recovery policy shall be formulated with a consideration of the regional and global trends in socio-economic and societal transformations, such as transition to the low-carbon (carbon-neutral) development model.
Problem Statement. The adoption of the national target on reducing GHG emissions in accordance with an updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement has set quantitative targets for the lowcarbon development for Ukraine. The next important task is to formulate the imperatives of thegovernment policy, as well as to identify the tasks and measures aiming at achieving the stated goal and the effective inclusion of Ukraine into the EU Green Deal during the post-war recovery.
Purpose. The purpose of this research is to estimate targeted transformations of the energy and electricity
balances and corresponding macroeconomic effects.
Material and Methods. The effects ofachieving the climate goals have been evaluated in terms of economic factors, with the use of TIMES-Ukraine linear quasi-dynamic optimization energy system model.
Results. Energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment, technology modernization with the corresponding redirection of investments in low-carbon technologies, as well as development of competitive integrated energy markets have been proposed as the main pillars of decarbonization of Ukraine’seconomy.
Conclusions. Although the energy sector will play a key role in the post-war “green” recovery of Ukraine’s economy, the attention of the government shall not be limited within the sectoral framework, as the relevant effects are closely related to financial, social, fiscal, competitive, and infrastructure policies.