ОЦІНКА ПАЛИВНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ КРАЇН У ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОМУ ПРОСТОРІ ТА ЗАГРОЗИ ПОТРАПЛЯННЯ УКРАЇНИ У ПАСТКУ ПАЛИВНОЇ ЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ

V. KHAUSTOVA; M. KYZYM; T. SALASHENKO; I. HUBARIEVA

doi:10.15407/scine20.04.003

Authors

V. KHAUSTOVA Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5895-9287
M. KYZYM Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8948-2656
T. SALASHENKO Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1822-5836
I. HUBARIEVA Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9002-5564

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15407/scine20.04.003

Keywords:

fuel security, petroleum refi nery, crude hydrocarbons, synthetic motor fuel, and dependency trap

Abstract

Introduction. Fuel security is critical for the stability of every country. Advanced oil-deficit economies pay considerable attention to fuel security by developing motor fuel production.
Problem Statement. Because of the declining petroleum production and refining and limited opportunities to
import petroleum and motor fuels, Ukraine has gradually turned into a country with a critically low fuel security.
Purpose. The purpose is to determine the level of fuel security of European countries and Ukraine based on the
methodological approach that involves the calculation of local fuel security indicators by components and levels.
Materials and Methods. The information source of the study is Eurostat database. Using large-scale modelling of big-data in Microsoft Power BI software, we have made an integrated assessment of fuel security of European countries in the regional space and its dynamics.
Results. It has been determined that among European countries, those that produce crude hydrocarbons sustainably and develop petroleum refinery through low-concentration imports of raw materials have strong positions in terms of fuel security in the general European fuel security rating, in particular, Norway (77%), Spain (48%), and Lithuania (47%). The level of Ukraine’s fuel security fell from 35% (13th place in the ranking based on the assessment results), in 2001, to 31% (24th place in the ranking), in 2021. The destruction of production facilities
as a result of Russian aggression has resulted in its drop almost to zero. It has been proved that strengthening
Ukraine’s fuel security by restoring production from crude hydrocarbons is impossible because of the decline in
their production and limited import opportunities.
Conclusions. The research proposes a methodological approach to assessing the country’s fuel security based
on the four security components: accessibility, availability, acceptability, and aff ordability. This makes it possible to determine it by the levels of primary, final, and overall fuel security. The solution to this problem has been proposed by developing the production of synthetic motor fuel from coal. The results can be used in revising the Energy Strategy of Ukraine.

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