complex systems, national resilience, multi-mode objects with variable structure, methods of assessment, reliability


Introduction. Existing methods for assessing the resilience of key processes and objects within the state and society as complex social systems need to be developed and improved in order to enhance the accuracy and objecti vity of the results of such an assessment.
Problem Statement. There is an urgent need for the development of methods to assess the reliability of complex systems under uncertainty in the context of ensuring national resilience, which is an innovative and promising direction of interdisciplinary research.
Purpose. The purpose of this research is the development of recommendations on the formation of a methodology for assessing the continuity of governance as an element of ensuring national resilience.
Material and Methods. The methodology is based on the theoretical discussion including research of scholarly research literature and public sources using analysis, synthesis, as well as system, logical, structural-functional, comparative, abstract logical, and other methods.
Results. It has been proved that both qualitative and quantitative methods, including mathematical methods based on the theory of reliability of complex technical systems, can be used to assess the continuity of governance as a process that is generated by a complex social system. The method of a quantitative assessment of the reliability of complex technical systems has been improved by taking into account the properties of multi-mode objects, the possibility of changing their structure during the operation, and the working time of their components in different modes of operation. The effect of the advanced method has been calculated by assessing the reliability of the governmental communication system and its subsystems as an example.
Conclusions. Practical application of the methodology for assessing the continuity of governance, which should be developed on the basis of systematic and integrated application of quantitative and qualitative methods, is essential for enhancing national security and resilience strategic planning.


Download data is not yet available.


NATO. (2016, July). Commitment to enhance resilience. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw, 8-9 July 2016. URL: (Last accessed: 15.09.2022).

On the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine dated August 20, 2021 "On the establishment of the National Resilience System": Decree of the President of Ukraine of 27.09.2021 No. 479/2021. URL: (Last accessed: 22.09.2022) [in Ukrainian].

Joseph, J. (2013). Resilience as embedded neoliberalism: a governmentality approach. Resilience, 1(1), 38-52.

Kaufmann, M., Cavelty, M. D.,Kristensen, K. S. (2015). Resilience and (in)security: Practices, subjects, temporalities. Security Dialogue, 46(1), 3-14.

Lasconjarias, G. (2017). Deterrence through Resilience. NATO, the Nations and the Challenges of Being Prepared /Research Division - NATO Defense College, Rome. Eisenhower Paper, 7, 1-8.

Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1-23.

Holling, C. S. (2001). Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems. Ecosystem, 4, 390-405.

Fjäder, C. (2014). The nation-state, national security and resilience in the age of globalization. Resilience, 2(2), 114-129.

Folke, C. (2016). Resilience (Republished). Ecology and Society, 21(4), 44.

Reznikova, О. O. (2022). National resilience in a changing security environment. Kyiv. [in Ukrainian].

Folke, C., Boyd, E. (Eds.) (2011). Adapting institutions: governance, complexity and social-ecological resilience. Cambridge.

Donno, R. (2017). Building national resilience: Survive crisis, seize opportunity, prepare for change. URL: (Last accessed: 14.09.2022).

Fiksel, J. (2003). Designing Resilient, Sustainable Systems. Environmental Science and Technology, 37 (23),

Rensel, D. J. (2015). Resilience - A Concept. Defense ARJ, 22(3), 294-324.

Van Gigch, J. (1981). Applied general systems theory. Vol. 1. Mosсow [in Russian].

Van Gigch, J. (1981). Applied general systems theory. Vol. 2. Mosсow [in Russian].

Churchman, C. W., Ratoosh, P. (Eds.). (1959). Measurement: Definitions and Theories. New York.

Resilience Alliance. (2010). Assessing resilience in social-ecological systems: Workbook for practitioners. Version 2.0. URL: (Last accessed: 14.09.2022).

Ostreikovsky, V. A. (2003). Reliability theory. Mosсow [in Russian].

Polovko, A. M., Gurov, S. V. (2006). Basics of the theory of reliability. St. Petersburg [in Russian].

Bobalo, Yu. Ya, Volochii, B. Yu., Lozinskyi, O. Yu., Mandziy, B. A., Ozirkovskyi, L. D., Fedasiuk, D. F., … Jacobin, V. S. (2013). Mathematical models and methods of reliability analysis of radio-electronic, electrotechnical and software systems. Lviv [in Ukrainian].

Skhirtladze, A. H. (2008). Reliability and diagnostics of technological systems. Mosсow [in Russian].

Vasylyshyn, V. I. (2018). Basics of the theory of reliability and operation of radioelectronic systems. Kharkiv [in Ukrainian].

Gnatiuk, S. Ye. (2016). Quantitative assessment of the reliability of software-controlled means of communication. Information technologies and security. Collection of scientific works of ISZZI, 4(1), 84-90 [in Ukrainian].

Gnatiuk, S. Ye. (2018, June). Modeling the software reliability of energy system equipment of Ukraine. Materials of the scientific and practical conference: "Cyber security of energy" (29 May - 02 June 2018, Odesa). Kyiv, 17-26 [in Ukrainian].

Military handbook: reliability prediction of electronic equipment. (1991). MIL-HDBK-217F.

Kharchenko, V. A. (2015). Problems of reliability of electronic components. Modern Electronic Materials, 1(3), 88-92.

Villanueva, I., Lázaro, I., Anzurez, J. (2012). Reliability analysis of LED-based electronic devices. Procedia Engineering, 35, 260-269.

Catelani, M., Ciani, L. (2012). Experimental tests and reliability assessment of electronic ballast system. Microelectronics Reliability, 52(9-10), 1833-1836.

Wan, Yi, Huang, H., Das, D., Pecht, M. (2016). Thermal reliability prediction and analysis for high-density electronic systems based on the Markov process. Microelectronics Reliability, 56, 182-188.

NATO. (n.d.) Allies move forward on enhancing NATO's resilience. URL: (Last accessed: 15.09.2022).

Holling, C. S. (1978). Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. London.

Kononov, B. V. (2017). Basics of operation of military measuring equipment in the conditions of anti-terrorist operation. Kharkiv [in Ukrainian].

Ryzhov, Ye., Sakovych, L., Puchkov, O., Nebesna, Ya. (2020). Evaluation of reliability of radio-electronic devices with variable structure. Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control, 3(54), 31-39.

Sakovich, L., Krykhovetskyi, G., Nebesna, Ya. (2018).Theoretical multiple models of objects with a variable structure. Control, navigation and communication systems. Collection of scientific works of Poltava National Technical University named after Yury Kondratyuk, 5(51), 136-139. [in Ukrainian].

Ryzhov, Ye. V. (2017). The method of substantiating the minimum acceptable value of the probability of estimating the result of the parameter check. Instrumentation, 54(2), 96-106 [in Ukrainian].

Ryzhov, Ye., Sakovych, L., Vankevych, P., Yakovlev, M., Nastishin, Yu. (2018). Optimization of requirements for measuring instruments at metrological service of communication tools. Measurement, 123, 19-25.




How to Cite

Pyrozhkov , S., Reznikova, O., Gnatiuk , S., & Kuryata , Y. (2023). ASSESSING THE RELIABILITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING NATIONAL RESILIENCE. Science and Innovation, 19(4), 3–15.



General Questions on Modern Scientific, Technical and Innovation Policy